Boosted by macro sentiment, prices jumped initially, but were suppressed by fundamental factors, leading to volatile movements. SHFE tin prices showed a pattern of jumping initially and then pulling back. [SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract (SN2506)

On May 13, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) closed at 262,070 yuan/mt in the daytime session, up 0.37% from the previous trading day, with a turnover of 25.55 billion yuan. Total open interest reached 30,700 lots. Intraday price fluctuations were intense, exhibiting a pattern of "macro sentiment boosting a rally, while fundamentals suppressing volatility."

Positive signals emerged from the China-US economic and trade negotiations, with market expectations for marginal easing of tariff policies heating up and risk appetite rebounding. Domestic policy efforts continued, with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizing the acceleration of strategic emerging industry layouts, strengthening long-term market confidence in tin's downstream demand (e.g., electronics, new energy). Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts were pushed back to the end of the year, with the US dollar index fluctuating at highs but failing to significantly suppress metal prices.

Alphamin (DRC) shipped its first batch of resumed tin concentrate production (1,290 mt) on May 9, which is expected to enter the smelting process in June. Spot supply pressure may gradually ease in June. Expectations for supply recovery dampened speculative sentiment, with some funds exiting profitable positions, leading to an intraday jump initially and then a pullback.

Traders reported that intraday transactions were concentrated in the 261,000-263,000 yuan/mt range. Most downstream enterprises chose to purchase at points when the futures market pulled back, with transactions of high-priced resources remaining sluggish. Downstream orders were weak, with end-users primarily purchasing to meet immediate production needs, lacking incremental demand.